WC26 modelPerformance
Final · Spain won · 104 matches
Final verdict · tournament complete
The market finished ahead — narrowly — and the model was even in the knockouts

This log is frozen: the tournament ended 2026-07-19. Over the full 100-match sample the vig-free market out-scored the model on mean log-loss, 0.854 to 0.889 — a real but narrow gap that sits at the edge of statistical significance. In the 32 knockout games the two were dead even. Match by match the market took most of the duels (64 to 36, the profile of an underdog-backer: frequent small losses, occasional bigger wins). The full story — where the gap came from, and what xWDL says — is in the tournament review.

Mean hard log-loss over the 100 odds-matched matches · market 0.854 vs model 0.889 (p ≈ 0.06) · knockouts 0.896 vs 0.894
Matches scored
100
Model Brier (mean)
0.530
lower is better · 0–2 scale
Market Brier (mean)
0.506
vig-free consensus baseline
Cumulative log edge
−3.545
Σ(log market − log model) · >0 = model ahead
Running accuracy
How the race unfolded, match by match.
3-outcome Brier, running mean · model: lineup-conditioned capture · market: vig-free median of EU books · n = 100
Per-match edge
Where the model beat the book, match by match.
bar = Brier(market) − Brier(model) · positive (moss) = model closer to the result
Performance log
Every scored match, in full.
FixtureScoreModel p(act)Mkt p(act)Brier MBrier K
Spain 0–0 Argentinadraw31%32%0.7130.708
France 4–6 Englandaway32%22%0.6920.958
England 1–2 Argentinaaway34%31%0.6460.704
France 0–2 Spainaway32%30%0.6940.727
Argentina 1–1 Switzerlanddraw27%27%0.8780.872
Norway 1–1 Englanddraw28%25%0.8260.896
Spain 2–1 Belgiumhome51%59%0.3640.255
France 2–0 Moroccohome58%61%0.2680.237
Switzerland 0–0 Colombiadraw31%32%0.7110.714
Argentina 3–2 Egypthome76%72%0.0900.124
United States 1–4 Belgium dog call ✓away48%33%0.4120.669
Portugal 0–1 Spainaway45%49%0.4540.391
Mexico 2–3 Englandaway58%38%0.2710.585
Brazil 1–2 Norwayaway21%20%0.9720.989
Paraguay 0–1 Franceaway70%80%0.1390.063
Canada 0–3 Moroccoaway47%52%0.4150.345
Colombia 1–0 Ghanahome69%67%0.1510.167
Argentina 1–1 Cape Verdedraw9%11%1.5961.501
Australia 1–1 Egyptdraw31%33%0.7250.676
Switzerland 2–0 Algeriahome46%49%0.4350.399
Portugal 2–1 Croatiahome46%57%0.4460.287
Spain 3–0 Austriahome61%74%0.2370.107
United States 2–0 Bosnia and Herzegovinahome53%71%0.3320.130
Belgium 2–2 Senegaldraw30%28%0.7590.791
England 2–1 DR Congohome72%75%0.1220.104
Mexico 2–0 Ecuadorhome36%43%0.6200.495
France 3–0 Swedenhome70%74%0.1380.100
Ivory Coast 1–2 Norwayaway43%45%0.4880.458
Netherlands 1–1 Moroccodraw29%31%0.7800.717
Germany 1–1 Paraguaydraw27%18%0.8681.202
Brazil 2–1 Japanhome51%54%0.3570.327
South Africa 0–1 Canadaaway58%53%0.2700.330
Jordan 1–3 Argentinaaway86%84%0.0330.039
Algeria 3–3 Austria dog call ✗draw30%46%0.7540.433
DR Congo 3–1 Uzbekistanhome40%58%0.5440.273
Colombia 0–0 Portugaldraw31%24%0.7370.889
Panama 0–2 Englandaway78%84%0.0750.041
Croatia 2–1 Ghanahome66%53%0.1780.339
New Zealand 1–5 Belgiumaway75%81%0.1020.055
Egypt 1–1 Irandraw31%36%0.7130.625
Turkey 3–2 United States dog call ✓home36%28%0.6170.816
Paraguay 0–0 Australiadraw30%41%0.7450.536
Tunisia 1–3 Netherlandsaway77%87%0.0850.026
Japan 1–1 Swedendraw30%28%0.7480.780
Ecuador 2–1 Germanyhome20%20%0.9791.038
Curaçao 0–2 Ivory Coastaway66%82%0.1810.051
South Africa 1–0 South Koreahome18%17%1.0321.087
Czech Republic 0–3 Mexicoaway47%54%0.4170.316
Scotland 0–3 Brazilaway56%73%0.2990.109
Morocco 4–2 Haitihome69%79%0.1550.067
Switzerland 2–1 Canadahome44%38%0.4630.569
Bosnia and Herzegovina 3–1 Qatarhome56%70%0.2990.138
Colombia 1–0 DR Congohome58%62%0.2750.217
Panama 0–1 Croatiaaway62%66%0.2240.174
England 0–0 Ghanadraw14%13%1.3991.426
Portugal 5–0 Uzbekistanhome68%84%0.1590.040
Jordan 1–2 Algeriaaway56%64%0.2970.200
Norway 3–2 Senegalhome40%42%0.5460.513
France 3–0 Iraqhome86%90%0.0310.017
Argentina 2–0 Austriahome57%66%0.2850.177
New Zealand 1–3 Egyptaway51%61%0.3700.228
Uruguay 2–2 Cape Verdedraw23%21%1.0341.104
Belgium 0–0 Irandraw26%20%0.9131.121
Spain 4–0 Saudi Arabiahome85%88%0.0390.023
Tunisia 0–4 Japanaway63%67%0.2140.168
Ecuador 0–0 Curaçaodraw20%11%1.1751.473
Germany 2–1 Ivory Coasthome50%67%0.3710.161
Netherlands 5–1 Swedenhome57%57%0.2840.279
Turkey 0–1 Paraguayaway25%24%0.8520.874
Brazil 3–0 Haitihome78%87%0.0810.026
Scotland 0–1 Moroccoaway38%58%0.5710.269
United States 2–0 Australiahome47%59%0.4280.253
Mexico 1–0 South Koreahome48%47%0.4140.423
Canada 6–0 Qatarhome73%74%0.1130.102
Switzerland 4–1 Bosnia and Herzegovinahome56%61%0.2900.225
Czech Republic 1–1 South Africadraw27%27%0.8700.844
Uzbekistan 1–3 Colombiaaway61%70%0.2320.140
Ghana 1–0 Panama dog call ✗home27%41%0.8140.529
England 4–2 Croatiahome46%57%0.4330.285
Portugal 1–1 DR Congodraw23%17%1.0391.254
Austria 3–1 Jordanhome64%69%0.2020.147
Argentina 3–0 Algeriahome65%64%0.1860.202
Iraq 1–4 Norwayaway71%79%0.1300.068
France 3–1 Senegalhome54%66%0.3150.180
Iran 2–2 New Zealanddraw29%27%0.7970.855
Saudi Arabia 1–1 Uruguaydraw22%22%1.0861.065
Belgium 1–1 Egyptdraw27%23%0.8911.003
Spain 0–0 Cape Verdedraw10%7%1.5601.695
Sweden 5–1 Tunisiahome46%51%0.4410.369
Ivory Coast 1–0 Ecuadorhome25%28%0.8500.771
Netherlands 2–2 Japandraw30%28%0.7530.795
Germany 7–1 Curaçaohome81%93%0.0620.007
Australia 2–0 Turkeyhome15%18%1.1361.046
Haiti 0–1 Scotlandaway59%63%0.2570.208
Brazil 1–1 Moroccodraw29%25%0.7910.916
Qatar 1–1 Switzerlanddraw14%13%1.4061.406
United States 4–1 Paraguay dog call ✗home34%46%0.6560.435
Canada 1–1 Bosnia and Herzegovinadraw28%27%0.8330.842
South Korea 2–1 Czech Republic dog call ✗home28%37%0.7700.602
Mexico 2–0 South Africahome71%68%0.1340.162
p(actual) = probability either side assigned to the realised outcome · shootout matches score as draws (90-minute probabilities)